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Mathematical models

MUMM studies the ecosystem of the North Sea using mathematical modelling techniques.

Did someone say 'mathematical models'?

Yes, this involves properly understanding the mechanisms that govern the way the marine ecosystem works and translating them into mathematical expressions. These are gathered together in a system of equations … which are simply an appropriate way of rewriting the old laws on conserving mass and energy.

These equations are transformed into computing programs and, using various digital methods, attempts are made to resolve them using computers with an adequate calculating capability.

MUMM's models currently deal with physical variables (water levels, currents, waves, temperature, salinity), chemical variables (mainly substances such as hydrocarbons) and biological variables (confined to the first links in the food chain). All these variables are linked to one another and the degree of complexity and uncertainty increases from the physical to the biological variables.

The theoretical results produced from the models are then carefully compared with all the observations available. This is the 'validation' phase.

An unsatisfactory validation is a sign that the mathematical expressions chosen to describe physical, chemical and biological processes are not correct. Consequently this is a good tool for guiding research towards more detailed knowledge of the marine ecosystem.

A satisfactory validation indicates that the models can be used for management purposes and to a certain extent for forecasting.

These models are first and foremost research instruments that can be used to test various scientific hypotheses virtually, that is without having to carry out costly experiments. In this case, the term used is models under development.

When these models have attained an acceptable level of maturity and reliability, they are referred to as operational models capable of providing various items of marine information and a number of marine services, similar to those which have been provided by meteorology for many years now.

 Operational models

 Models under development





Coastal forecast

TIDES
OSTEND
[TAW]
 
Time
Elev.
 Low
15:20
1.08 m
 High
21:40
3.44 m
 Table Graph North Sea animation Belgian coastal zone animation

Harmonic prediction 
Ostend 1980–2020:
  *to
Enter as YYYY-MM-DD
  
WIND
WESTHINDER
 Speed 8.90 m/s 
 Sector 65° , ENE 
 Table Graph Line plot North Sea animation
  
WAVES
AKKAERT
 Height 1.18 m
 Table Graph North Sea animation
  
CURRENTS
WESTHINDER
 Graph ploar plot Line plot North Sea animation Belgian coastal zone animation
  
TEMPERATURE
OSTEND
 Graph Daily maps
  
SALINITY
OSTEND
 Graph Daily maps
  
TRANSPORT
  Daily maps
  


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 MUMM is a department of the Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences